أثر الائتمان المصرفي بصيغ التمويل الإسلامية على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بالمملكة العربية السعودية

دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 2014 - 2022م

The Impact of Bank Credit of the Islamic Instruments of Financing on the GDP of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:

Econometric Study of the Period Between 2014 - 2022

تناول البحث قياس أثر الائتمان المصرفي بالصيغ الإسلامية (المرابحة، المضاربة، المشاركة، التورق، الإيجار التمويلي) على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي السعودي، وهدفَ البحث إلى بيان الصورة المثلى التي يجب أن يكون عليها الائتمان المصرفي، وتقديم النتائج التي يمكن أخذها في الاعتبار عند رسم الخطط التي تهدف إلى تطوير السياسات التمويلية الإسلامية.

تتمثل أهمية البحث في بيان مدى تحقيق الائتمان المصرفي لدوره الاقتصادي المنشود في تعبئة الموارد والمدخرات لأغراض الاستثمارات الاقتصادية المختلفة خصوصاً الإنتاجية منها، وينعكس أثره على الاقتصاد السعودي.

استخدم البحث المنهج الوصفي لوصف الظاهرة موضوع البحث، والمنهج التحليلي عن طريق جمع البيانات الكمية وتصنيفها وتحليلها وفق نموذج الانحدار الخطي المتعدد باستخدام البرنامج الإحصائي Eveiws12.

توصَّل البحث إلى عدة نتائج منها: أنَّ الائتمان المصرفي بصيغ التورُّق ثم المرابحة ثم الإيجار التمويلي احتلت المراتب الأولى كأعلى نسب تدفق ائتمانية مقارنة بباقي الصيغ الأخرى، بينما أظهرت نتائج النموذج المقدر أنَّ لهذه الصيغ تأثير سلبي على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، وقد يُعزى سبب ذلك إلى رؤية المصرف التجارية، ورغبته في تحقيق أعلى قدر من الأرباح، واستخدام التمويلات الأقل مخاطرة دون النظر إلى الآثار الاقتصادية المترتبة على هذه الصيغ. كما تُشير النتائج إلى أنَّ تحويل صيغ التمويلات الربوية إلى إسلامية قد يؤدي ذلك إلى إجازتها الشرعية من جانب، ولكن من جانب آخر قد تتكبَّل هذه الصيغ العديد من المخاطر العالية والتأثيرات السلبية على النشاط الاقتصادي، وإذ تُوصي هذه الدراسة الباحثين إلى ابتكار صيغ تمويل إسلامية جديدة ومستقلة من حيث التأصيل والمنهج عما هو واقع حاليًا.

الكلمات المفتاحية: الائتمان المصرفي، المرابحة، المشاركة، المضاربة، التورُّق، الناتج المحلي.

Abstract

The research dealt with measuring the impact of bank credit of the Islamic instruments of financing: (Mur?ba?a, Mu??raba, Mush?rka, Tawarruq, Financial Lease) on Saudi GDP. The research aimed to show the optimal picture that bank credit should be, and a presentation  of the results that can be taken into account when drawing plans aimed at developing Islamic financing policies.

The importance of research is to show the extent to which bank credit has achieved its desired economic role in mobilizing resources and savings for various economic investments, especially in production, whose impact will reflect on the Saudi economy.

The research used the descriptive method to describe the phenomenon in question, and the analytical method by collecting, classifying and analyzing quantitative data according to the multiple linear regression model using the statistical program (Eveiws 12).

The research reached several results, including: that bank credit in form of  Tawarruq, followed by Mur?ba?a and then Financial Lease ranked first as the highest credit flow rates compared to other instruments, while the results of the estimated model showed that these formulas have a negative impact on GDP, and this may be attributed to the bank's commercial vision, its desire to achieve the highest amount of profits, and the use of less risky financing instrument without considering the economic implications of these instruments. The results also indicate that converting usurious financing instruments to Islamic may lead to their legalization on the one hand, but on the other hand, these formulas may be shackled by many high risks and negative effects on economic activity, and this study recommends researchers to invent new and independent Islamic financing instruments in terms of origination and approach away from what is currently in place.

Keywords: bank credit, Mur?ba?a, mush?rka, Mud?raba, Tawarruq, GDP.

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